How Likely Are You To Predict A Perfect Bracket? - WLNS TV 6 Lansing - Jackson | Your Local News Leader

How Likely Are You To Predict A Perfect Bracket?


EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) - One of the biggest draws of the tournament for many is playing the brackets and looking for winners. You think it's easy?

Retired MSU statistician Jim Stapleton said the odds of filling out the perfect bracket, or predicting every single game correctly, are 1 in 153 billion.

To give some perspective to this, those are roughly the same odds as rolling a 6 on 15 dice or flipping a coin 37 times and getting heads every time. You're also 1,000 times more likely to win the Powerball.

But in filling out the bracket, Stapleton said it's statistically best to go with a higher seeded team, since like we saw with Michigan State, they tend to win. But like life, nothing's ever a sure thing.

"In a single year, strange things happen. They're bound to happen, but over the 28 years I've been looking at it, team seeded four tends to beat team seeded six, for example," he said.

So Spartan fans should feel fairly comfortable going into Saturday's game by that logic. Out of all the games since 1985, putting a number three seed against a number six, the higher seeded team won 56 percent of the time.

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