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Political Polls: Are they accurate? Plus, what when wrong in 2016

Michigan

Lansing, Mich. (WLNS) — We are now 36 days away from deciding who will lead our country for the next 4 years.
So, how accurate are the polls?

You will probably see them or notice them more leading up to Election Day.

CBS’ Monica Ross is taking polls predicting who will be the next president. But, rather historically in 2016, many state polls got it wrong, forecasting Hilary Clinton as the winner.

“Let us not forget the national polls were not wrong when they said Hilary Clinton was going to win the popular vote by 2-3% and that’s exactly what she won it by. Many state polls were not as accurate,” Bernie Porn, EPIC Michigan Regulatory Agency President of a company that 6 News often uses to conduct surveys, said.

They gave the race to Clinton by seven points in 2016.
Porn said if they took another poll less than a week before elections their results may have been more accurate.
But he also said his company is changing the way they collect data.
“We make sure that we call at least 40 percent cell phones and that’s up from a few years ago of 20 percent,” Porn said.
The advantage of calling cell phones is getting younger people to participate– opposed to landlines– which aren’t common among Millenials.
Online polling is also growing in popularity– but if you get a text asking who you’re voting for or see an ad on social media– if it doesn’t redirect you to an actual survey, chances are its just an organization trying to send more ads.

“I think people should keep the bar from going super high,” political scientist Matt Grossmann says no poll is perfect.
“What people really want to know from polls is who is going to win and polls can’t always tell them that often polls are just going to tell them this is a close race, or it’s not a very close race.”
But as of now…both Porn and Grossmann have Biden in the lead.

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