Skubick: Control of State House and Senate hangs in balance Tuesday


Democrats are hoping to pull-off an upset by taking control of the Michigan House and maybe the State Senate Tuesday.

But Republicans are fighting to make sure it does not happen.

It comes down to a numbers game.

The magic number for House Democrats is 9.

They need to pick up 9 new seats to gain control of the House.

The magic number for Senate Democrats is 8.

If they get to twenty seats they will win control.

The question is can the Democrats pull that off?

Senator Curtis Hertel Jr. says six seats is reasonable and eight is possible.

Rep. Sam Singh says 15 House seats are in play but it comes down to getting more Democrats to the polls.

Even though he is not likely to visit Michigan before next Tuesday, President Donald Trump is having an impact here.

There are Republican concerns that he might be a liability in some places and a help in others.

Senator Hertel sees it more negatively.

“I don’t know a district where he polls above 50 percent,” insists the senator. “Donald Trump is not the savior for that many in the state election.”

One Republican source suggests the Democrats will win five or six seats but recent events in Washington may have damped Democrat hopes for nine seats.

The emotional and ugly fight over the Judge Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination may have rejuvenated the Republican base to vote next week.

Yet Rep. Singh thinks the control issue will come down to one county:  Oakland.

“Oakland County is going to be the deciding factor for the entire election,” says Rep. Singh. “There are a lot of people out there who are upset. There’s nobody that’s happy about the state Michigan is in.”

The numbers will tell the story next week.

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