LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) — Up until this point, the polls have suggested it is a statistical dead heat between current President Biden and former President Trump–but in five of six critical states, including Michigan, Trump has opened up a lead among registered voters.

A New York Times/Siena College poll shows the lead for Trump in Michigan is 48% to 43% among registered voters, which is beyond the margin of error. Among likely voters, on the other hand, the poll shows Biden and Trump tied in Michigan at 46%.

A deep dive into the extensive data shows that Michigan would reject the Trump candidacy by a seven-point margin–48% to 41%–if Biden were not on the ticket.

6 News pollster Bernie Porn said the fact that another Democrat could beat Trump not only in Michigan, but four of the other swing states, would lead to this advice for Biden: “I would probably advise him to think long and hard about, is there someone who could take his place as a candidate,” the pollster said. “I would also support that he do some testing to see if messaging could make up that difference.”

Some of the troubling data for Biden includes:

  • 71% of Michigan voters feel he is too old for a second term, compared to 39% who think Trump is too old.
  • On the issues of mental sharpness, 65% think it’s a problem for the president, while 43% think it’s a challenge for Trump.
  • Biden wins the Michigan women’s vote, the cities, the college vote, but he loses outstate (rural) Michigan. Biden and Trump are tied in the suburbs.

While the new polling is troubling for Biden, Bernie Porn reflects on that five-point lead for Trump. “Five points in Michigan can be recovered, but you’ve got to find the messaging,” said the pollster.

Talking about closing the gap is one thing; finding the message to do so is quite another.